Each sub-market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially and publicly claims to have achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before the date specified in that sub-market's title. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Resolution Criteria:

For resolution to "Yes," all of the following conditions must be met:

1. OpenAI must make an official announcement through verified company channels, which include: the official OpenAI blog (openai.com/blog), official press releases distributed through recognized wire services, official OpenAI social media accounts (@OpenAI on Twitter/X), or public statements made by OpenAI's CEO, President, or Board of Directors in official capacities.

2. The announcement must explicitly and unambiguously state that OpenAI has "achieved AGI" or "built AGI" or "created Artificial General Intelligence." Phrases such as "approaching AGI," "AGI-level capabilities," "proto-AGI," "early AGI," or "on the path to AGI" do not satisfy the resolution criteria.

3. The announcement must be publicly accessible and verifiable at the time of resolution.

What Does NOT Count:

The following do not qualify for resolution to "Yes": internal company communications or leaked documents; claims made by individual employees outside official capacity; third-party assessments, academic papers, or media speculation; announcements from competitors or industry analysts; draft announcements or statements later retracted within 48 hours.

Definition of AGI:

This market uses OpenAI's own self-assessment as the determining factor. If OpenAI claims to have achieved AGI, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of external scientific debate, criticism, or disagreement about whether the system truly constitutes AGI. OpenAI's internal definition and judgment are final for resolution purposes.

Corporate Continuity:

If OpenAI undergoes any of the following changes, the market will handle resolution as follows:

Acquisition: If OpenAI is fully acquired by another entity, AGI claims by the acquiring entity regarding systems developed by the former OpenAI team or continuing the OpenAI research lineage will count.

Merger: If OpenAI merges with another organization, claims from the merged entity will count if the announcement explicitly references the OpenAI research program or team.

Restructuring/Renaming: If OpenAI restructures or rebrands but maintains operational continuity, claims from the successor organization will count.

Dissolution: If OpenAI ceases to exist entirely without a clear successor organization continuing its research, the market resolves "No."

Spin-offs: If OpenAI creates a spin-off entity specifically for AGI development, claims from that spin-off will count.

Resolution Sources (in order of priority):

1. OpenAI's official blog at openai.com/blog

2. Official OpenAI press releases

3. Verified official OpenAI social media accounts

4. Video or transcript of official company presentations or keynotes

5. Major technology news outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Verge, TechCrunch) for confirmation purposes only

Timing and Timezone:

All times referenced in this market are in GMT+0 (Greenwich Mean Time). Each sub-market's deadline is 23:59:59 GMT+0 on December 31st of the year preceding the year stated in the title (e.g., "Before 2027" resolves based on announcements made by December 31, 2026).

Edge Cases:

If OpenAI announces AGI but immediately clarifies or retracts within 48 hours, the announcement does not count. If OpenAI makes an announcement that is ambiguous and later provides clarification, the clarification will be considered in resolution. If multiple conflicting statements are made by different OpenAI officials, the statement from the highest-ranking official or the official company blog post takes precedence.

Data Availability:

If the primary resolution sources become permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on archived versions (Wayback Machine, Archive.org) or credible consensus reporting from at least three major technology news outlets.